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DTN Closing Cotton            10/21 13:56

   Cotton Reverses Sharply Lower Thursday

   After participating in Wednesday's commodities rally, the cotton market 
reversed course Thursday to settle sharply lower.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After participating in Wednesday's commodities rally, the cotton market 
reversed course Thursday to settle sharply lower. Two nagging negatives perhaps 
undermining the market's bullish trend are the unfolding 2021 harvest and the 
inability to adequately ship cotton. To that end, on Monday, USDA will update 
its harvest progress, which is likely to be at 40% or so. To the former point, 
the global shipping crisis is nearly bringing the movement of goods to 
something of a standstill. Such was evidenced by Thursday's slow exports 
numbers.

   Friday, the CFTC will update the trading status and positions of the 
market's various participants. The most watched category is the managed-money 
funds. That group has essentially been net long for some 16 months, and at 
times, heavily so.

   To reiterate, USDA will report on the harvest next week, and to that end the 
current six- to 10-day outlook indicates above-normal temperatures, but 
above-normal rainfall for the Delta and the Southeast, while West Texas will 
see above-normal temperatures and below normal rainfall. Currently, many 
southern growers are doing double-duty in that they are not only deep into the 
peanut harvest and are now just initiating the gathering of cotton.

   For Thursday, December settled at 106.14 cents, down 4.59 cents, March ended 
at 104.15 cents, down 4.48 cents and December 2022 ended at 89.07 cents, 1.43 
cents lower; estimated volume was 35,136 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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