DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          06/16 06:35

   Cotton Trades Technically Higher Tuesday

   Tuesday's cotton market is attempting to balance out its small, oversold 
condition. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Tuesday's cotton market is attempting to balance out its small, oversold 
condition. That is, from its 88.08-cent top on May 13, the new crop has fallen 
some 1,500 points lower. Additionally, there is some bearish squaring as 
traders decipher the meaning of the U.S./Iran peace deal, as well as the 
anticipation of the acres report at month's end.

   USDA released its weekly Crop Progress and Condition report Monday. The 
report showed that 53% of the U.S. cotton crop was rated good to excellent as 
of June 7 versus 49% a year ago. Texas was pegged at 42% good to excellent, 
down from 45% last week but up from 35% a year ago and above the five-year 
average at 32%. The data also showed 86% of the crop was planted, up from 77% 
the previous week and 84% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 
88%. Texas was 80% planted, down from 81% a year ago and below the five-year 
average of 85%.

   The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss and decide on the 
future of U.S. interest rates. Under its new chairmanship, the central bank is 
not expected to take any action.

   Crude oil has fallen to its lowest level in three months. Traders continue 
to await further details on the U.S.-Iran agreement to bring the Middle East 
conflict to an end. Nonetheless, likely there will be continued lingering 
volatility in the market until the full terms of the peace framework are known 
and agreed upon. 

   The market will be closed Friday for the Juneteenth observance. The ICE 
futures will reopen the following Sunday night at 9 p.m. EDT, but likely 
certain reports will be pushed back a day.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 76.00 cents and 75.15 cents, 
with resistance around 78.50 cents and 79.10 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated 
volume is 8,234 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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