DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/08 07:45

   Cotton Market Moves Higher Ahead of Isaias, WASDE Report

   The cotton market has shifted back higher Thursday as traders await the 
landfall of Hurricane Isaias and Friday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand 
Estimates (WASDE) report. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market has shifted back higher Thursday as traders await the 
landfall of Hurricane Isaias and Friday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand 
Estimates (WASDE) report. Additionally, there will be Thursday's export sales 
and Friday's CFTC data to process.

   Hurricane Isaias, the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, is moving 
toward a landfall on the northern Gulf Coast Friday night or early Saturday. It 
will characteristically bring a strong storm surge, heavy rains, local flooding 
and high winds. It will then spread its heavy rain inland over the East this 
weekend. Isaias is centered in the Gulf over 400 miles southwest of New Orleans 
and is moving northeast. It's expected to strengthen to at least a Category 2 
hurricane by Thursday night in the central Gulf as it begins to take a more 
northerly track.

   USDA just issued its weekly export sales with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 165,100 RB for 2026/2027 were down 19 percent 
from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
Increases primarily for Vietnam (61,800 RB, including 1,100 RB switched from 
China), Pakistan (45,900 RB), India (20,800 RB, including decreases of 1,000 
RB), Honduras (11,900 RB), and Bangladesh (8,100 RB), were offset by reductions 
for China (7,400 RB). Net sales of 56,100 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for 
China (44,100 RB), Honduras (10,400 RB), and Japan (1,600 RB). Exports of 
161,600 RB were up 8 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the 
prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (39,600 RB), 
India (18,100 RB), Mexico (17,900 RB), Pakistan (16,500 RB), and Guatemala 
(14,500 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 3,300 MT for 2026/2027 reported for 
India (4,300 RB), Vietnam (200 RB), China (100 RB), and Thailand (100 RB), were 
offset by reductions for Egypt (1,300 RB) and Indonesia (100 MT). Exports of 
2,900 RB were down 69 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the 
prior 4-week average. The destinations were India (2,400 RB), Italy (400 RB), 
and Bahrain (100 RB)."

   At the close of trading Thursday, October cotton will expire. To date, there 
have been no deliveries tendered against that contract.

   On Friday, USDA will release its October WASDE. Last month, government 
tabulators reduced the current crop from 13.60 million bales to 13.20 million 
bales, while lowering ending stocks to 3.60 million bales from the previous 
4.00 million bale level.

   Later that afternoon, CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders numbers. 
Last week, the managed-money funds net sold some 7,000 positions reducing their 
net-long carry to 74,500 contracts.

   For Thursday, close-in support for December cotton stands at 79.70 cents and 
78.75 cents, with resistance around 81.85 cents and 82.25 cents. Thursday 
morning's estimated volume is 9,867 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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