DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          08/13 07:43

   Cotton Bull Suffers an Incision 

   After disappointing WADSE numbers Thursday, the cotton market is 
triple-digits lower Thursday. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After disappointing WADSE numbers Thursday, the cotton market is 
triple-digits lower Thursday. It could be a certain technical top, which we 
have been detailing in our separate cotton letter, may have been reached. 
However, traders will want to see Thursday's export sales and Friday's CFTC 
data for further instructions.

   USDA just released its weekly export sales report with the following 
numbers: "Net sales of Upland totaling 905,000 RB for 2026/2027 marketing year, 
which began August 1, were primarily for Vietnam (222,500 RB, including 4,000 
RB switched South Korea, 400 RB switched from Japan, 100 RB switched from Hong 
Kong, and decreases 1,200 RB), Pakistan (164,200 RB), Bangladesh (81,100 RB), 
Mexico (67,300 RB), and India (67,200 RB). A total of 778,900 RB in sales were 
carried over from the 2025/2026 marketing year, which ended July 31. Exports 
for the period ending July 31 of 67,900 RB brought accumulated exports to 
11,198,500 RB, a slight increase from the prior year's total of 11,191,200 RB. 
The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (23,800 RB), India (15,800 RB), 
Pakistan (11,500 RB), China (4,400 RB), and Turkey (3,500 RB). Exports for 
August 1-6 of 140,500 RB were primarily to Vietnam (60,800 RB), Pakistan 
(13,900 RB), China (12,700 RB), India (12,500 RB), and Mexico (10,800 RB). Net 
sales of Pima totaling 50,600 RB for 2026/2027 marketing year, which began 
August 1, were primarily for India (21,900 RB), Colombia (6,800 RB), Italy 
(3,800 RB), Pakistan (3,500 RB), and Vietnam (2,800 RB). A total of 47,000 RB 
in sales were carried over from the 2025/2026 marketing year, which ended July 
31. Exports for the period ending July 31 of 1,200 RB brought accumulated 
exports to 448,600 RB, up 3 percent from the prior year's total of 435,000 RB. 
The destinations were to Turkey (600 RB) and Peru (500 RB). Exports for August 
1-6 of 6,000 RB were primarily to India (3,700 RB), Egypt (1,100 RB), Colombia 
(500 RB), Vietnam (400 RB), and Indonesia (300 RB)."

   Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders numbers. 
Last week saw the managed-money funds net buy 9,800 positions, swelling their 
net-long carry to 62,279 contracts.

   China's internal State Reserves auction completed its 18th consecutive 
sold-out auction Thursday for approximately 8,003 metric tons (mt) (about 
35,213 bales). The 18-day total reached 144,301 mt (about 634,924 bales), 
consisting of roughly 49% U.S. cotton, 19% Brazilian, and 32% Xinjiang.

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 13-22) shows much-above normal 
temperatures for the length of the U.S. Cotton Belt. Rain-wise, most of the 
Belt will experience below-normal chances.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 82.45 cents and 81.20 cents, 
with resistance around 84.25 cents and 85.25 cents. Thursday morning's 
estimated volume is 15,989 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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