DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          08/28 07:12

   Cotton Ponders Next Move on Friday 

   After a huge upside price session on huge volume, Friday morning the cotton 
market is pondering its next move. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After a huge upside price session on huge volume, Friday morning the cotton 
market is pondering its next move. In the last few weeks, the ICE futures have 
posted several contract highs and Thursday they decisively settled above the 
90-cent level for the first time since August 2023. Traders will assess 
Friday's CFTC update, comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and global weather 
outlooks.

   Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders 
numbers. Last report showed managed-money funds net-bought some 5,800 
positions, increasing their net-long carry to 78,668 contracts.

   A Reuters news story says high temperatures and heavy rain have battered 
China's key corn, soybean and cotton-growing regions since mid-July. There is a 
threat of crop quality and yield losses that could force China to boost imports 
of global feed grains and cotton, including supplies from the United States. 

   On Monday, USDA will update its condition data for the 2026 crop. Last 
week's reading had the U.S. crop at 38% good-to-excellent, well below previous 
weekly and five-year average levels. That report will be out at 4 p.m. EDT.

   Crude oil is lower Friday morning, despite the simmering situation in Iran. 
This week President Donald Trump says he is not interested in returning to the 
previous memorandum of understanding terms with Iran. The administration said 
it was not in talks with Iran despite diplomatic efforts by other countries 
to re-engage the two sides. Recently, the White House announced an "economic 
D-Day campaign" against Tehran, threatening countries that do business with the 
Islamic Republic.

   For Friday support for December cotton lies at 89.45 cents and 88.90 cents, 
with resistance around 93.00 cents and 93.50 cents. Friday morning's estimated 
volume is 18,858 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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