DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          06/09 08:21

   Cotton Trades Wounded  

   The cotton market is slightly lower Tuesday after a huge volume trade on 
Monday. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is slightly lower Tuesday after a huge volume trade on 
Monday. Traders need new price drivers to determine their next move. 
Technically, new-crop December continues to press on the lower side of its 
77.90 cents to 77.20 cents retracement support. This week traders will be 
assessing crop progress data, export sales numbers, the June WASDE tables, and 
the next CFTC update.

   As mentioned, USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report Monday and it 
rated the current crop as 53% good to excellent versus 49% a year ago. As far 
as plantings, 77% of the U.S. cotton crop is in the ground, up from 66% the 
previous week and 75% a year ago. Texas is 68% done versus a five-year average 
of 71%. Georgia is 85% complete versus 87% on average.

   Option expiration for the July contract is Friday, June 12, while the spot 
July contract commences delivery on June 24, running through July 9.

   This Thursday, USDA will issue weekly export sales at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Last 
week's business saw sales of 185,268 bales for the current marketing year and 
77,145 for 2026-27 for a total of 262,413. The prior combined season sales were 
265,663 bales, with the four-week moving average running around 216,000.

   Also on Thursday, at noon eastern, USDA will issue the June WASDE. Last 
month government tabulators projected the 2026-27 crop to be 13.30 million 
bales, with a domestic carryout of 3.90 million, and a global supply of 275.05 
million bales. We also note the official Planted Acres will be released on June 
30.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 76.25 cents and 75.85 cents, 
with resistance around 78.90 cents and 79.75 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated 
volume is 24,499 contracts.

    

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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