DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          09/03 07:54

   Cotton Collapses, Specs Exit 

   Cotton prices fall sharply as speculators exit amid peace talks.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is sharply lower again as speculators are leaving the ICE 
Futures, melting prices in their wake. Recently, open interest and the 
concentration of net-long traders swelled in numbers, has created a massive 
overbought situation. Traders will need additional positive news in order for 
the market to steady itself. 

   Overnight, "suddenly" Putin says he wants a full and lasting peace, rather 
than a frozen conflict with Ukraine. However, he has several core demands. This 
so-called new twist is sending the grain markets sharply lower, which is also 
influencing cotton. 

   USDA just released its weekly exports-sales with the following numbers: Net 
sales of Upland totaling 27,500 RB for 2026/2027 primarily for India (10,800 
RB), Vietnam (10,800 RB, including 4,000 RB switched from South Korea and 
decreases of 300 RB), Bangladesh (5,200 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), 
Peru (2,000 RB), and China (1,700 RB switched from Hong Kong), were offset by 
reductions for South Korea (3,800 RB) and Hong Kong (1,700 RB). Exports of 
189,500 RB were primarily to Vietnam (77,300 RB), India (22,200 RB), Pakistan 
(17,800 RB), Mexico (14,700 RB), and Indonesia (9,700 RB). Net sales of Pima 
totaling 1,800 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for India (1,100 RB), Thailand 
(500 RB), Pakistan (200 RB), and Japan (100 RB). Exports of 4,600 RB were 
primarily to Vietnam (1,500 RB), India (1,200 RB), Costa Rica (900 RB), Turkey 
(400 RB), and Pakistan (300 RB).

   On Friday, traders will see new monthly jobs data for August. Last month, 
the Labor Department reported a net job loss of 85,000 non-farm jobs. The 
report is out at 8:30 a.m. 

   Also, on Friday at 3:30 p.m., the CFTC will update its weekly C-O-T numbers. 
Last week, the managed-money funds bought some 17,000 positions, swelling their 
net-long carry to 95,000 contracts. Their record long position stands around 
108,000. 

   For today support for December Cotton stands at 8570 and 8475, with 
resistance around 8950 and 9000. This morning's estimated volume is a whopping 
32,479 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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