DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          08/03 07:14

   Cotton Market Sharply Lower Monday Morning

   The cotton market is sharply lower Monday morning, despite the fact that the 
futures ended July net-up some 400 points. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is sharply lower Monday morning, despite the fact that the 
futures ended July net-up some 400 points. There is a notion that speculators 
are overly slanted to the bull side at a time when U.S. growing conditions seem 
to be improving. Traders will assess the U.S.-Iran news, Friday's CFTC update 
and this afternoon's crop condition numbers for price influences.

   Last Friday, the CFTC updated its Commitment of Traders data. The report 
showed that the managed-money funds net sold nearly 800 contracts, to slightly 
lower their bullish carry to 52,410 contracts.

   This afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will update the condition of the 2026 
U.S. crop. Last week, the crop was rated at 46% good to excellent versus the 
previous year reading of 55% good to excellent.

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 8-12) shows much above-normal 
temperatures for much of the U.S. Cotton Belt. Rain-wise, West Texas should see 
nearly normal changes, while the lower Delta and the Southeast may anticipate 
slightly above normal opportunities. The most recent U.S. Drought Monitor said 
that 42% of the domestic cotton crop is in drought. That level is way off this 
season's peak of 98% drought.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 80.00 cents and 79.20 cents, 
with resistance around 82.10 cents and 83.00 cents. Monday morning's estimated 
volume is 9,785 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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