DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/23 07:46

   Cotton Is Bruised, But Still Stands 

   The cotton market suffered a serious correction Wednesday and overnight, but 
Thursday morning it is nearly unchanged. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market suffered a serious correction Wednesday and overnight, but 
Thursday morning it is nearly unchanged. Essentially since late March, the ICE 
futures have vertically shot up some 1,400 points with no setback until now. 
However, few crop fundamentals have changed. Traders will assess Thursday's 
export sales, Friday's CFTC update, the May contract's delivery numbers and, of 
course, any weekend rains which could fall across the Cotton Belt. 

   USDA just issued its latest export sales data with the following numbers: 
"Net sales of Upland totaling 119,900 RB for 2025/2026 were down 26 percent 
from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases 
primarily for Vietnam (62,100 RB, including decreases of 3,900 RB), Turkey 
(22,400 RB, including decreases of 400 RB), Pakistan (15,900 RB, including 
decreases of 100 RB), India (10,900 RB), and Malaysia (7,100 RB switched from 
China), were offset by reductions for China (8,700 RB). Net sales of 57,100 RB 
for 2026/2027 reported for Vietnam (17,600 RB), Indonesia (17,600 RB), Pakistan 
(13,200 RB), and Malaysia (8,800 RB), were offset by reductions for South Korea 
(200 RB). Exports of 296,400 RB were down 3 percent from the previous week and 
16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to 
Vietnam (89,000 RB), Pakistan (46,600 RB), India (25,100 RB), Bangladesh 
(22,000 RB), and Indonesia (21,300 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 36,200 RB 
for 2025/2026 -- a marketing-year high -- were up noticeably from the previous 
week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for India (22,900 
RB), China (5,700 RB, including 1,800 RB switched from Vietnam), Vietnam (5,200 
RB), Pakistan (1,400 RB), and Bangladesh (900 RB), were offset by reductions 
for Italy (300 RB). Net sales of 4,400 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for 
Egypt (2,600 RB). Exports of 4,500 RB were down 26 percent from the previous 
week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to 
Pakistan (2,400 RB), India (1,200 RB), Thailand (500 RB), Peru (300 RB), and 
Vietnam (100 RB)."

   First notice day for the May contract is Friday, April 24. Its delivery 
period runs through May 6.

   Also Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of 
Traders standings. Last week, for the first time in some two years the 
managed-money funds had reversed to a net-long position. Currently, they are 
net-long some 16,000 contracts.

   The U.S. dollar remains at a 1-1/2-week high as a standoff between Iran and 
the U.S. plays out. Tehran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on 
Wednesday, escalating tensions, while President Trump extended a ceasefire with 
Iran indefinitely with no sign of peace talks restarting. The two sides now 
remain divided on a ceasefire, blockade, nuclear issues and control of the 
strait, leaving the strategic waterway still effectively shut and triggering an 
energy shock in a blow to economies across the world.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 77.75 cents and 78.85 cents, with 
resistance around 80.20 cents and 82.00 cents. Thursday morning's estimated 
volume is 34,390 contracts.

    

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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