DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/09 07:12

   Cotton Higher as Isaias Threatens an Already Short Crop

   The cotton market is materially higher Friday as some traders fear winds 
from Hurricane Isaias will result in loss in a crop that seems to already be 
coming up short. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is materially higher Friday as some traders fear winds 
from Hurricane Isaias will result in loss in a crop that seems to already be 
coming up short. Also, traders are mindful of Friday's World Agricultural 
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and CFTC updates.

   Hurricane Isaias is headed for a Gulf Coast landfall Friday night with 
life-threatening storm surge, flooding and high winds. It will then spread its 
heavy rain and wind inland over the Southeast this weekend.

   October cotton expired Thursday at 76.21 cents. Its contract low was 65.87 
cents and its high was 92.15 cents. There were no deliveries tendered against 
that contract.

   Friday at noon EDT, USDA will release its October WASDE. Last month, 
government tabulators reduced the current crop from 13.60 million bales to 
13.20 million bales, while lowering ending stocks to 3.60 million bales from 
the previous 4.00 million bale level.

   This afternoon at 3:30 p.m. EDT, CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders 
numbers. Last week, the managed-money funds net sold some 7,000 positions 
reducing their net-long carry to 74,500 contracts.

   Crude oil is somewhat lower Friday as President Trump said that the U.S. 
will not attack Iran before U.S. elections next month. Also, there is a hint of 
yet another effort at background talks to end the war. The delayed attacks, 
along with China's resumption of oil product exports, have prices moving lower.

   For Friday, close-in support for December cotton stands at 79.75 cents and 
78.70 cents, with resistance around 82.75 cents and 84.00 cents. Friday 
morning's estimated volume is 12,830 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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