DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/10 07:16

   Cotton Lower Friday as it Awaits Data 

   The cotton market remains in a congestive mood as traders await Friday's 
reports from USDA and CFTC. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market remains in a congestive mood as traders await Friday's 
reports from USDA and CFTC. Also, traders are watching weather factors and 
assessing the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.

   Friday at noon eastern, USDA will issue its supply-demand update for July. 
The industry average guess is 13.42 million bales, up from 13.30 million seen 
in June. Domestic ending stocks are expected to be 3.77 million bales versus 
the 3.70 million in June. World ending stocks are expected at 71.33 million 
bales versus 71.13 million in June.

   Also, Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of 
Traders data. Last week, the funds bought 6,400 positions, shrinking their 
net-long carry to 31,985 contracts.

   The most current U.S. Drought Monitor now shows 55% of the U.S. cotton area 
is in drought. That reading compares to the previous 56% versus its top peak of 
98% drought earlier in the year. With that, the 6- to 10-day weather forecast 
(July 15-19) shows near normal to above normal temperatures for West Texas, 
while the Delta and the Southeast will experience above-normal to 
much-above-normal readings. Rain-wise, much of the breadth of the U.S. Cotton 
Belt should see slightly above-normal chances for precipitation opportunities.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 79.30 cents and 78.80 cents, 
with resistance around 81.30 cents and 82.00 cents. Friday morning's estimated 
volume is 10,829 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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