DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/01 07:44

   Cotton Suffers Lower 

   Cotton prices continue to move lower. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market posted new lows for its bearish move, although it was not 
as dramatic. Likely, the net-long managed-money funds are "unhooking" for those 
positions. Traders will assess today's exports, the CFTC update and harvest 
weather for additional pricing clues. 

   USDA just released its weekly exports-sales with the following numbers: Net 
sales of Upland totaling 202,600 RB for 2026/2027 were down 12 percent from the 
previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases 
primarily for Vietnam (51,200 RB, including 5,700 RB switched from China, 4,800 
RB switched from South Korea, and decreases of 3,700 RB), Pakistan (40,600 RB), 
China (38,400 RB), Honduras (22,700 RB), and Malaysia (12,100 RB), were offset 
by reductions for South Korea (4,800 RB) and Japan (100 RB). Net sales of 
39,200 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Malaysia (30,800 RB), Honduras (7,700 
RB), Guatemala (500 RB), and Japan (200 RB). Exports of 149,500 RB were down 9 
percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (49,800 RB), India (25,300 RB), 
Pakistan (15,800 RB), Mexico (15,200 RB), and Bangladesh (10,900 RB). Net sales 
reductions of Pima totaling 2,100 RB--a marketing-year low--were reported for 
2026/2027. Increases reported for Turkey (500 RB), Vietnam (500 RB), India (500 
RB switched from Colombia), Bangladesh (400 RB), and Indonesia (400 RB), were 
offset by reductions for Peru (4,000 RB) and Colombia (500 RB). Exports of 
9,300 RB were down 21percent from the previous week, but up 44 percent from the 
prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (7,600 RB), 
Turkey (600 RB), Bangladesh (500 RB), Malaysia (200 RB), and Japan (200 RB).

   Tomorrow at 3:30 p.m., the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders data. 
Last week's numbers showed that the managed-money traders were net sellers of 
16,000-plus contracts, which reduced their net long carry to 81,610. Their 
record stands at 108,788 contracts. 

   Crude Oil is reversing earlier losses and is trading up amid a report that 
Chinese refiners have suspended October fuel exports. Their action, meant to 
protect domestic supplies, will likely further squeeze global energy markets. 
Supposedly, China's state oil major PetroChina, canceled a handful of gasoline 
and jet fuel shipments that were planned for October. 

   Into next week, cotton traders will see fresh crop progress data on Monday, 
new exports-sales on Thursday, plus the WASDE report on Friday, updating 
cotton's supply-demand tables.  

   For today close-in support for December Cotton stands at 7760 and 7700, with 
resistance around 7960 and 8100. This morning's estimated volume is 16,650 
contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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