DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/15 07:13

   Cotton Market Trades Sideways

   Amid bearish supply-demand numbers, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and the 
unfolding U.S. harvest, the cotton market is tracing out a sideways path. 


Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Amid bearish supply-demand numbers, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and the 
unfolding U.S. harvest, the cotton market is tracing out a sideways path. All 
while the conflict with Iran continues to emotionally and financially weigh on 
all markets. Traders are awaiting Friday's holiday-delayed export sales data 
followed by the CFTC update in the afternoon.

   Thursday morning's fresh PPI (wholesale inflation) numbers will be released. 
Its numbers are now expected to be elevated. Headline monthly PPI is estimated 
at 0.5% versus the previous 0.4%.

   Weekly export sales will be released Friday. Highlights from last week's 
report included net combined seasonal sales of 221,128 bales. That amount was 
below the previous 241,727 bales, but was higher than the four-week average. 
Cumulative sales for 2027/28 have reached 44% of the USDA forecast versus a 
five-year average of 53% for this point in the marketing year. Shipments 
totaled 161,588 bales, up from 149,507 bales the previous week.

   Also on Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of 
Traders numbers. Last week, the managed-money funds net sold some 10,000 
positions, reducing their net-long carry to 63,837 contracts.

   WTI crude oil is flat to higher Thursday as traders assessed potential 
supply disruptions following attacks on ships passing through the Strait of 
Hormuz. A Singapore-registered ship sunk Wednesday in the Strait. Also, there 
was a critical report from the International Energy Agency indicating that 
tightness in the diesel fuel markets could linger well into next year.

   For Thursday, close-in support for December cotton stands at 79.20 cents and 
78.75 cents, with resistance around 81.50 cents and 82.30 cents. Thursday 
morning's estimated volume is 16,888 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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