DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          09/01 07:15

   Cotton Sharply Lower to Begin September 

   The cotton market is sharply lower today, amid its "overbought condition" 
driven by overly saturated net-long speculators. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is sharply lower today, amid its "overbought condition" 
driven by overly saturated net-long speculators. Just last Friday, the CFTC 
reported that the funds were net long over 95,000 contracts. In addition, 
cotton's seasonality, reflecting the impending harvest, begins to roll over. 

   USDA's weekly Crop Progress report showed 39% of the U.S. cotton crop was 
rated good/excellent as of August 30, up from 37% the previous week. However, 
the rating is down from 51% a year ago and below the five-year average for this 
date at 46%. Texas was 22% G/E, up from 19% last week but down from 44% a year 
ago and a five-year average of 34%. Georgia was 62% G/E, down from 63% last 
week but up from 51% a year ago. The report also showed 29% of the U.S. cotton 
crop had bolls open, up from 20% the previous week and 27% a year ago. The 
five-year average for this date is 28%

   The Chinese State Reserve auctions continue to experience good demand. 
Typically, the State Reserve replenishes reserve stocks. China conducted its 
31st consecutive sold-out auction. Today's offering included 8,00 tonnes (about 
35,208 bales). The 31-day total reached 248,686 tonnes (about 1,094,218 bales), 
a mix of US, Brazilian, and Xinjiang cotton.

   On September 24, President Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in Washington. 
Among their many topics to discuss, two key ones will be Iran and global trade.

   Tropical Storm Edouard is gaining strength as it tracks across the northern 
Gulf and is less than 24 hours away from making landfall in Texas. A warning 
has been issued by the National Hurricane Center from Port Bolivar, Texas, to 
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana. 

   Later this week, traders will see fresh export-sales data, and the monthly 
jobs report for August. 

   For Tuesday, support for December Cotton stands at 90.22 cents and 89.45 
cents, with resistance around 94.00 cents and 94.50 cents. Tuesday morning's 
estimated volume is 17,650 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.