DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          05/26 07:13

   Cotton Starts Week Higher 

   After being pounded lower after its 88.08-cent top, the cotton market is 
commencing this last week of May somewhat higher. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After being pounded lower after its 88.08-cent top, the cotton market is 
commencing this last week of May somewhat higher. Traders will be assessing 
several upcoming events such as weather and the U.S. Iran War for some price 
direction. Also cotton-specific, there is Tuesday's crop progress and Friday's 
exports-sales to be considered. 

   Last Friday, the CFTC issued its weekly Commitments of Traders data. Despite 
the recent bearish trading turmoil, the managed-money funds bought 2,475 
positions, lifting their net-long carry to 62,045 contracts. For context, their 
net-long carry to 58,000-plus. The all-time bullish record, from 2018, stands 
at 108,788 contracts.

   Also Friday's U.S. Drought Monitor continued to show 97% of the U.S. crop 
remains in drought. That record stands at 98%.

   This afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will update the progress of the 2026 
crop. Last week, the report, representing the top 15 producing states, was 41% 
planted. The five-year average is 40% complete.

   Option expiration for the July Contract is Friday June 12th, or 20 days 
hence. Then Spot July Delivery commences on June 24th, running through July 
9th. 

   The 6- to 10-day forecast (May 31-June 4) shows below to much-below-normal 
temperatures for Texas, the US Delta, and the Southeast. Rainwise, Texas is 
forecasted for above-normal precipitation, while the Delta and the Southeast 
look to have slightly higher chances for rain. 

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 78.25 cents and 78.00 cents, 
with resistance around 81.85 cents and 83.00 cents. This morning's estimated 
volume is 25,475 contracts.

    

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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