DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          06/11 07:42

   Cotton Bounces a Tad Thursday

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Thursday as some position-squaring is 
likely occurring ahead of this morning's export sales report and later the June 
WASDE. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Thursday as some position-squaring is 
likely occurring ahead of this morning's export sales report and later the June 
WASDE. Traders are assessing the increasing escalation in the U.S./Iran War, as 
well as higher inflation numbers.

   USDA just released its weekly export sales report with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 207,000 RB for 2025/2026 were up 12 percent 
from the previous week and 60 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases 
primarily for Vietnam (83,300 RB, including 4,100 RB switched from China, 300 
RB switched from Japan, and 300 RB switched from South Korea), Pakistan (57,300 
RB, including 1,600 RB switched from Bahrain and decreases of 100 RB), India 
(35,300 RB), Indonesia (13,500 RB, including 400 RB switched from Japan and 
decreases of 100 RB), and Bangladesh (8,000 RB), were offset by reductions for 
China (5,500 RB), Bahrain (1,600 RB), South Korea (300 RB), and Japan (200 RB). 
Net sales of 298,700 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Vietnam (180,000 RB), 
Nicaragua (39,700 RB), Turkey (28,600 RB), Mexico (23,000 RB), and unknown 
destinations (13,200 RB). Exports of 300,100 RB were up 12 percent from the 
previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations 
were primarily to Vietnam (109,200 RB), Pakistan (49,400 RB), India (35,800 
RB), Mexico (23,100 RB), and Bangladesh (22,300 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 
7,600 RB for 2025/2026 were up 40 percent from the previous week and 13 percent 
from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for India (5,600 RB), 
Peru (1,100 RB), Djibouti (500 RB), Indonesia (200 RB), and Guatemala (200 RB). 
Total net sales of 100 RB for 2026/2027 were for Vietnam. Exports of 22,900 
RB--a marketing-year high--were up 22 percent from the previous week and 90 
percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to India 
(7,400 RB), Pakistan (5,700 RB), China (4,000 RB), Vietnam (2,300 RB), and 
Djibouti (1,300 RB)."

   At noon eastern Thursday, USDA will also issue its June WASDE. Industry 
estimates indicate U.S. production to be at 13.53 million bales versus May's 
13.30 million bales. Exports are estimated at 12.33 million bales compared to 
the previous 12.30 million, with ending stocks expected at 4.12 million versus 
3.90 million in May. World production is expected at 116.46 million bales, up 
410,000, with world consumption expected at 121.32 million, off 370,000, with 
carryout pegged at 72.33 million, plus 490,000 bales.

   Options expiration for the July contract is Friday on the close, while the 
spot July contract commences delivery on June 24, running through July 9.

   Crude oil is edging lower Thursday, amid U.S. attacks on Iran. Of late, 
Tehran has been targeting several Gulf State allies and dragging its feet on 
negotiations. The Iranian state-run media claimed Tehran had struck several 
U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 75.00 cents and 74.50 cents, 
with resistance around 77.50 cents and 79.75 cents. Thursday morning's 
estimated volume is 30,323 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.