DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          08/17 07:15

   Cotton Eases Higher Monday 

   The cotton market, picking up where it left off Friday, is pushing somewhat 
higher. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market, picking up where it left off Friday, is pushing somewhat 
higher. Last week, December cotton finished 40 points positive. This week, 
traders will assess the market's technicals, growing conditions, and outside 
influences as it decides its next move.

   Last Friday, the CFTC updated its Commitments of Traders information. Its 
numbers held that the managed-money funds added some 10,500 long positions, 
lifting their net-long carry to 72,870 contracts.

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 22-26) shows much-above normal 
temperatures for the entirety of the U.S. Cotton Belt. Rain-wise, forecasts 
show below-normal chances for the planted area as well.

   China's State Reserve completed its 20th consecutive sold-out auction Monday 
for approximately 8,010 metric tons (mt) (about 35,244 bales). The 20-day total 
reached 160,320 mt (about 705,408 bales), consisting of roughly 48% U.S. 
cotton, 20% Brazilian, and 32% Xinjiang.

   Monday afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will grade the condition of the crop. 
Last week, the U.S. crop was rated 40% good to excellent. The previous weekly 
reading was 42%, all versus last year's ranking of 55% good to excellent. 

   Monday morning, crude oil is slightly higher amid the lack of progress in 
diplomatic efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict. Last week saw WTI 
futures gain more than 5%, following attacks on tankers in the Hormuz 
Strait. Monday also marks the end of the 60-day Memorandum of Understanding 
cease-fire.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 85.50 cents and 86.00 cents, 
with resistance around 83.10 cents and 82.75 cents. Monday morning's estimated 
volume is 11,485 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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