DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          08/04 07:19

   Cotton Eases Lower

   After its weird start to August, in which prices were harshly negative 
early, but then turned positive about noon, Tuesday's market is giving back 
some of those gains.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After its weird start to August, in which prices were harshly negative 
early, but then turned positive about noon, Tuesday's market is giving back 
some of those gains. As it stands, the yield jury is still out on an accurate 
determination of the size and scope of not only the U.S. crop, but foreign 
production as well.

   Monday afternoon, USDA issued its Crop Progress report for the week ended 
Aug. 2. Its data showed that the condition of the 2026 U.S. crop was 42% good 
to excellent, versus the previous 46%, and compared to last year's reading of 
55% good to excellent. Cotton setting bolls was 55%, slightly behind the 
five-year average of 56%.

   China's State Reserve completed its 11th consecutive sold-out auction, 
Tuesday selling approximately 8,015 tonnes (about 35,266 bales). The 11-day 
total reached 88,209 tonnes (about 388,120 bales), consisting of roughly 54% 
U.S. cotton, 17% Brazilian and 29% Xinjiang.

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 9-13) shows much above-normal 
temperatures for Texas, as well as the Delta and the Southeast. Rain wise, 
Texas looks to have normal chances, while the lower Delta will experience 
below-normal opportunities. The Southeast is slated for normal chances.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 81.00 cents and 80.20 cents, 
with resistance around 82.20 cents and 83.60 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated 
volume is 9,789 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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