DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          10/29 07:58

   Cotton Floats Sideways Awaiting Fresh Market Direction

   Cotton drifts lower as harvest pressure outweighs export optimism.


Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is hovering at the low-end of its recent price range, 
waiting for some sort of "shoe" to drop.  Thursday's exports-sales and 
tomorrow's CFTC update may provide some guidance, but harvest continues to 
weigh on the market.

   The U.S. Dollar is somewhat steady Thursday after the Federal Reserve left 
interest rates unchanged. The Fed opted to delay any changes to borrowing costs 
until after next week's midterm election in a 10-2 decision, which came with an 
upgraded assessment of an economy that the central bank now says is growing at 
a "strong pace."

   The September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation was just 
released. The index was projected to increase 0.5% in September for an annual 
rate of 3.7%, but the respective estimates for core PCE were 0.3% and 3.1%. 

   USDA just released its weekly exports-sales with the following numbers: Net 
sales of Upland totaling 216,500 rolling bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were up 8% 
from the previous week and 21% from the prior four-week average. Increases were 
primarily for China (52,100 RB), Turkey (40,800 RB), Vietnam (35,000 RB, 
including 4,400 RB switched from China), Indonesia (26,400 RB, including 
decreases of 300 RB), and Mexico (21,400 RB, including decreases of 1,700 RB). 
Net sales of 38,300 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Indonesia (17,000 RB), 
Honduras (8,000 RB), China (5,300 RB), Vietnam (4,400 RB), and Mexico (3,600 
RB). Exports of 160,800 RB were down 18% from the previous week and 1% from the 
prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (65,200 
RB), Pakistan (26,600 RB), Turkey (13,900 RB), Mexico (10,200 RB), and Honduras 
(6,600 RB). Total net sales of Pima totaling 100 RB for 2026/2027 were down 95% 
from the previous week and 97% from the prior four-week average. Increases were 
for Pakistan. Exports of 3,300 RB were down 56% from the previous week and from 
the prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (2,400 
RB), Bangladesh (400 RB), Turkey (300 RB), and Slovenia (200 RB).

   Tomorrow, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will report on the 
position of the managed-money funds. Last week, they were net buyers of 767 
positions, which fractionally increased their net-long position to 66,466 
contracts. The data was calculated from last Tuesday's settlement and will be 
made public at 3:30 p.m. EDT.

   For Thursday close-in support for December Cotton stands at 77.50 cents and 
77.00 cents, with resistance around 79.30 cents and 80.40 cents. This morning's 
estimated volume is 11,732 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.