DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/06 07:16

   Cotton Higher Monday 

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Monday as heat and moisture stress are 
affecting certain areas of the U.S. Cotton Belt. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Monday as heat and moisture stress are 
affecting certain areas of the U.S. Cotton Belt. In addition, the Chicago 
grains are higher on similar concerns.

   The CFTC will release a delayed Commitments of Traders update at 3:30 p.m. 
EDT Monday. Last week, the managed-money funds bought some 3,300 positions, 
increasing their net-long carry to 38,400-plus contracts.

   Later this afternoon, USDA will update its crop progress report. The 2026 
cotton crop is 97% planted, but as of late, the good-to-excellent conditions 
have been slipping. Two weeks ago, the crop was 53% good to excellent, but that 
tally gave way to 48% last week. The numbers will be out at 4 p.m. EDT.

   Also this week, traders will see new export sales data on Thursday, followed 
off by a supply-demand update on Friday. The July WASDE will be released at 
noon.

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (July 11-15) shows above to above-normal 
temperatures for most of the U.S. Cotton Belt. Rain-wise, southern Texas looks 
to have slight better chances, while the Southeast and the Delta should see 
only scant rain opportunities.

   The U.S. Drought Monitor currently shows 56% of the U.S. Cotton Belt remains 
in drought versus last week's reading of 58%. For context, the highest peak 
reading was 98% drought.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 76.35 cent and 75.60 cents, with 
resistance around 78.50 cents and 79.55 cents. Monday morning's estimated 
volume is 2,332 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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