DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          09/29 07:21

   Cotton Critically Lower 

   The overnight cotton market was somewhat lower as traders began to adjust 
certain positions as a response to end-on-the-month and end-of-the quarter 
squaring. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is materially down Tuesday morning, driven by exiting 
speculators and funds, who are likely squaring their positions with the 
calendar. This week marks the end-of-the month and end-of-the-quarter. In 
addition, traders remain "entranced" by a surging U.S. Dollar and the 
unresolved conflict with Iran. 

   On Monday, the USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report. Its data showed 
that 35% of the US cotton crop was rated good/excellent, up from 34% of the 
previous week. The five-year average for this date is 41%. Texas was 18% G/E, 
up from 15% last week but down from 41% a year ago and below the five-year 
average at 29%. The report also showed 17% of the U.S. crop had been harvested 
as of Sept. 27 versus 13% the previous week and a five-year average of 15%. 70% 
of the crop had bolls open versus a five-year average of 67%.

   There are a host of economic reports due this week, including the August 
personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) on Wednesday. Supposedly 
that report is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Also updated U.S. 
manufacturing numbers are out Thursday, followed by Friday's September jobs 
report. Agriculturally, USDA will issue its quarterly grains inventory numbers 
on Wednesday and exports-sales on Thursday.

   On Thursday, USDA will release another round of weekly exports-sales. Last 
week's combined sales tallied some 350,000 bales. Mexico was the largest buy, 
while China was a net canceller of 4,000 bales. Weekly shipments totaled 
164,700 bales, up 16% weekly.   

   This Friday, at 3:30 p.m. EST, the CFTC will update its Commitments of 
Traders data. Last week's numbers showed that the managed-money traders were 
net sellers of 16,000-plus contracts, which reduced their net long carry to 
81,610. Their record stands at 108,788 contracts. 

   For today close-in support for December Cotton stands at 8000 and 7950, with 
resistance around 8250 and 8350. This morning's estimated volume is 36,789 
contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.