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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          03/27 07:25

   Cotton Adjusts Lower

   After its attempted, but fundamentally lacking, rally of Tuesday the cotton 
market is down one hundred points overnight. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After its attempted, but fundamentally lacking, rally of Tuesday the cotton 
market is down one hundred points overnight. The key driver of Tuesday, we 
think, was the continued rolling and/or flattening action of speculators and 
producers as they move from the May to the July contracts. Traders are awaiting 
Thursday cotton reports before they have a three-day Easter Holiday. 

   As mentioned, between now and the weekend, traders will view several key 
reports such as quarterly grains stocks, 2024 intended acres and exports-sales 
on Thursday, followed by the PCE inflation index on Friday. The latter report 
is closely watched by central bank analysts.

   To reiterate, the market will trade an abbreviated week. The ICE Futures 
will be closed on Friday in observance of the Good Friday/Easter holiday. The 
cotton market will reopen Sunday Night at 9 p.m. EDT.

   For the intentions report, the industry estimate for the 2024/25 season 
stands at 10.906 million acres. The range of estimates spans from 10.24 million 
to 11.30. USDA's Outlook Forum in February had the number at 11.0 million. For 
some context, acres were 10.23 million in 2023/2024, and 13.75 million in 
2022/2023.

   Wednesday, chart support for July cotton stands at 92.40 cents and 92.00 
cents, with 94.65 cents and 95.55 cents as resistance. Wednesday morning's 
estimated volume stands at 6,197 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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